2012 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan
The 2012 Natural Gas IRP was filed with the Idaho, Oregon and Washington Commissions on August 31, 2012. We will start preparing for the 2014 IRP in January 2014. If you or your organization would like to participate in this process, or be included in our Technical Advisory Committee mailing list, please email Kelly Irvine or contact her by phone at 509-495-4335.
2012 Natural Gas IRP Summary:
- The long term forecast for demand has declined relative to our 2009 plan. Continued economic uncertainty has manifested in lower customer growth and declining use per customer. The first resource deficiency in our Expected Case occurs in 2029.
- "Flat demand" is a key risk to this plan, therefore we will carefully monitor our demand trends recognizing that should growth accelerate our resource needs may occur sooner than expected.
- The price of natural gas has declined significantly since our 2009 plan driven by widespread shale natural gas availability. This is good news for our customers as it means low cost energy well into the future.
- The avoided costs from the 2012 IRP are considerably lower due to the drop in natural gas prices. Current avoided costs have rendered natural gas demand-side management (DSM) programs cost-ineffective. Avista has filed in Idaho and Washington to suspend natural gas DSM programs and is evaluating natural gas DSM programs in Oregon. Avista continues to believe in the long term benefits of DSM and will monitor natural gas prices as a signpost for the cost-effectiveness of DSM programs. Should prices rise, Avista will be proactive in reinstating cost-effective DSM programs.
- With no immediate resource needs, our Action Plan guides us to continue to watch the changing landscape of natural gas supply, including Canadian supply availability and interprovincial demand, exporting LNG, regional and national pipeline and storage infrastructure activity, plans for additional gas-fired generation, legislation regarding hydraulic fracturing and other environmental concerns. Furthermore, we will keep a close eye on demand particularly customer growth, price elastic responses, and potential incremental demand from natural gas vehicles.
2012 Natural Gas IRP (PDF: 3.0 MB)
2012 Natural Gas IRP Appendices (PDF: 14.0 MB)